The stock market jumped with joy after an outsized increase in the policy level by the US Fed, with the hope that most of the monetary tightening is behind us and the slowing economy will force cutting next year. They seem to believe that Fed ‘Put’ does not die, but only in a coma, and that will soon return to his task to support the market. We have shown last week that the rebound in equity is very possible as a reaction from the ultra-bearish sentiment, driven by a lot of cash with the fund manager. Like this FT story, free to read for MC Pro customers, said, investors really need a piece of good news from Jay Powell, and that shows.
The related debate is whether the US is already in the recession, with the latest GDP shows two quarters of consecutive contractions. The market has so far overwhelmed this risk and my colleague Anubhav Sahu has shown that the assessment does not take into account the destruction of significant demand. The IMF revised the projection of global growth this week.
But why will the US eat triggering a recession? One school thinks that the Fed is touching in the dark, a belief that is strengthened by the shocking comments of Jerome Powell, “I think we better understand how little we understand about inflation.” But there are other reasons that are stronger. At his press meeting after the policy announcement, Powell struggled to underline that the labor market in the US was in a good fettle and tightening monetary policy would cool it. As said by this article, the condition of the labor market is the key to the attitude of the US monetary policy and as long as the work market remains strong, the Fed will continue to tighten. It is very possible that this will result in a recession, as happened during the years of volcker.
Will it affect the Indian IT company? This article by agreeing to quote Rishad Premji, Chair of the Wipro Executive, who said this sector was “resistant to recession”. We analyze the prospects of Infosys, MPhasis, Coforge, Persistent System and Tech Mahindra and show that cognizant guidance denies Indian optimism. Liquidity withdrawals have affected the start-up in India and there are many talks about the new winter, but this analysis shows the situation is almost not that bad.
Sophisticated PMI indicators for the US and the Euro zone also indicate contractions in output, but we argue that it might not have to be bad for India. Mohamed El-Erian, President Queens’ College, Cambridge, wrote in this FT article that while investors still need to step carefully in the developing market, they can focus on sovereignty with large international reserves. India must be in accordance with the bill.
Transmission of the US market is forwarded to commodities and developing markets through dollars. Barry Eichengreen’s economist said that if the US economy and inflation weakened, the Fed would likely stop and the US dollar could reverse the direction. Ajay Bagga said the peak in the USD would revive the flow to the developing country. In fact, the dollar index has dropped and the flow of foreign portfolios has begun to return, bringing assistance that is needed for rupees. This is a deep dive about what determines the assessment in the Indian market and why we have a premium for others.
Our economic recovery tracker sees the restoration of rural sentiment. Recovery is also seen from the optimistic results of the financial company – ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Mahindra Box, SBI Life, Home First Finance Company and Bajaj Finance – But what you see may not always be what you get. Among the consumer companies, Asian CAT, Crpton Greaves Electricals Consumer and Foodworks that are fun show decent results for the June quarter, but this is a warning record of two giant MNCs, while Dixon Technologies has diverse internal business. Our rainy season is referring to the regional differences in rain, which has influenced rice sowing.
Among the infrastructure sector companies, L&T results are very impressive and what is more encouraging, private sector orders have begun to increase. But this part of Ultratech said the demand environment for cement remained uncertain. The views for global cycles such as steel are also cloudy, reflected in our analysis of JSW Steel and Tata Steel here and here. And then there is Zomato.
There has been a flood of the June quarter, analyzed in depth by our research team and we will urge customers to go to our research department for their insight. See if the company’s performance and outlook justify their judgment.
Our regular features this week include Crypto conversations about the use of blockchain in real estate; Green axis in investment in the waste recovery system in cement companies due to soaring energy costs; Personal finances, who told us how to surprise our investment from the exit by the Bintang Dana Manager such as Prashant Jain; and Strategy Lab, which supports the trading strategy sent by the reader. The east window sees the US lobby to put pressure on President Joe Biden for an attitude that is lacking confrontation of China.
Howard Marks, in this section, told us why investors had to be patient. He wrote, “If you wait at the bus stop for a long time, you are guaranteed to take the bus. But if you run from one bus stop to the next, you might never take the bus. “
We also have a story about politics of choosing Jagdeep Dhankhar as a vice presidential candidate for NDA; the need to discipline fintech in the bond market; The latest government orders regarding the obligations of renewable power, which can cause the struggle between the center and the state; Emergency Plan to Stabilize Rupees, as in 2013; Why sanctions loosen the European Union against Russia too little, too late; which gets benefits and loses from data localization; Indian ambivalent attitude about cryptos; and China’s dominance in critical EV input.
With the Monetary Policy Committee that decides the policy level next week, we see how the final game is likely to be played for inflation and bonds and writing about the implications of liquidity extortion in the money market. And while monetary tightening to control inflation is very good, spend thoughts for large fiscal deficits as well.
To be sure, the road ahead is full of danger, with central banks must direct the complicated road between inflation rocks and recession in the waters to be more shallow than that day as tidal liquidity. But the market hopes that the worst is behind them and the central banks that have spoiled themselves for more than a decade will not disappoint them. That hope seems enough for the market to start singing this song.
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